Best Opportunities
model versus market, net of feesHow this platform finds value
Every cycle the pipeline pulls the tradable universe from Kalshi and Polymarket with live bids and asks, then asks 5 frontier models independently to estimate the true probability of the most liquid questions. Outliers and malformed answers are discarded, the survivors are combined into a confidence-weighted consensus, and that consensus is compared with the price actually available on the exchange after fees. A market trading at 30 cents that the ensemble puts at 70 percent is the product; everything else on this dashboard exists to let you check whether that claim deserves your trust.
The models reason from training data and have no live feed, so questions resolved by breaking information are marked Flagged rather than traded. Signals are sized by quarter-Kelly and recorded as paper positions first.